Fed December Hike Bets Near 80% After U.S. Adds 165,000 Jobs in October

By Kevin · 2026-11-09 · News

Nov. 9 (CandyPulse) — One jobs report was all it took. After U.S. employers added far more workers than expected in October, traders now see roughly a 4-in-5 chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates again at its Dec. 8–9 meeting.

**Key takeaways** - The U.S. economy added **165,000 jobs** in October, more than double what economists expected - Unemployment slipped to **4.1%** - Futures pricing now implies about a **77% to 80%** chance of a quarter-point Fed hike in December, depending on the source - **October CPI** lands **Tuesday, Nov. 10**, and is the next big test - Higher-for-longer rates usually weigh on risk assets, including Bitcoin

The numbers at a glance

Indicator	Latest reading	Why it matters
October payrolls	+165,000	Roughly twice the forecast
Unemployment rate	4.1%	Labor market still tight
December hike odds (CME FedWatch)	~77–80%	Up from about 75% before the report
Next CPI release	Tue, Nov. 10, 8:30 a.m. ET	Could confirm or cool hike bets
Fed decision	Dec. 8–9	Market expects +0.25 point

Why a strong report spooked markets

In normal times, a hot jobs number is good news. Right now it cuts the other way. The Fed has been fighting stubborn inflation, made worse this year by an oil shock, and a labor market this strong gives policymakers little reason to ease off.

So traders did the math. Before Friday's release, markets already leaned toward a December hike at about 75%. After it, CME FedWatch readings climbed into the high 70s, and Reuters reported futures pricing near 80%. Prediction market Polymarket showed about a 77% chance on Monday. The exact figure varies by provider, but the direction is the same: a hike is now the base case.

What it means for your money

Borrowing costs: Mortgage and loan rates tend to stay elevated while hike odds are high.
The dollar: It firmed on Monday as rate expectations rose.
Stocks and crypto: Higher rates make "risk-on" assets less attractive in the short run. We covered how rate talk has moved Bitcoin before, including when Bitcoin neared $84K as Fed officials signaled no cuts.
Gold: Rate-hike bets are also keeping a lid on bullion; see gold holds near $4,070.

What's next

All eyes are on Tuesday's October CPI. A hot print would likely lock in December hike expectations; a soft one could pull the odds back toward a coin flip. After that, the November jobs report on Dec. 4 is the last major data point before the Fed meets.

More from today's markets:

For crypto readers, see live numbers on our Bitcoin price today and crypto prices today pages, the Crypto News Today desk, and the Sunday CANDY Weekly roundup. New to terms like "basis point" or "hawkish"? Our crypto glossary explains them in plain English.

Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Market figures move quickly and different data providers can show slightly different numbers. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.