Bitcoin Rally on Edge? CryptoQuant Flags Correction Risk as Trader Profits Hit 21-Month High

By Kevin · 2026-09-30 · News

Sept. 30 (CandyPulse) — Bitcoin's bull market is still intact, but the warning lights are starting to flicker. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant says short-term traders are sitting on their biggest paper profits in 21 months, a setup that has often come before a wave of selling.

Key takeaways

Short-term holders' unrealized profit margin hit 33%, the highest since December 2024
25,700 BTC of profit was realized on Sept. 22, the largest single day of 2026
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index is still 90 out of 100
$80,000 is the first support level to watch

What CryptoQuant found

"Short-term holders" are wallets that bought bitcoin fairly recently. When their average unrealized profit, the gain they'd lock in if they sold today, climbs this high, many are tempted to cash out. CryptoQuant said comparable margins have historically encouraged traders to lock in gains, The Block reported.

That selling has already started. On September 22, holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit, the largest daily figure this year.

Why it matters

The firm also pointed to softer demand under the surface: spot buying is contracting and futures growth has slowed. When fewer new buyers arrive just as existing holders start to sell, prices can struggle.

Not a bear market call

CryptoQuant was careful not to call the top. Its Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains at 90 out of 100, a sign that overall conditions are still strong. Its message is closer to this: the trend is healthy, but a short-term pullback is becoming more likely.

What's next

$80,000: the first support level CryptoQuant flagged. Holding it would keep the uptrend intact.
Profit-taking data: another big day of realized gains would confirm traders are cashing out.
Macro headlines: oil, interest rates and ETF flows are still driving day-to-day moves.

This article is for information only and is not financial advice.