It sounds like a contradiction. On one hand, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant says Bitcoin is still in a bull market, with its own scoring system rating conditions at 90 out of 100. On the other hand, the same firm is warning that a correction could be near.
So which is it? The answer is: both. And understanding why is one of the most useful lessons in reading crypto markets.
Key takeaways
Think of a bull market like climbing a staircase with landings. The overall direction is up, but every so often the price pauses, or even steps down, before climbing again.
Those pullbacks are called corrections. In Bitcoin's history, even the strongest bull markets have included drops of 20% or more along the way. A correction doesn't end a bull market; it often resets it, shaking out traders who bought late with borrowed money and giving new buyers a better entry.
So when CryptoQuant says "bull market, but correction risk", it's describing the landing on the staircase, not the staircase collapsing.
CryptoQuant tracks short-term holders, wallets that bought Bitcoin relatively recently. It measures their unrealized profit margin: how much they'd make on average if they sold right now.
That figure has climbed to about 33%, the highest level in 21 months, since December 2024.
Why does that matter? Because people with big, fresh profits are the most likely to sell. They didn't buy to hold for a decade; many bought for a trade. When their gains get this large, the temptation to lock them in becomes strong, and historically, similar levels have come before waves of selling.
It's not just theory. On September 22, Bitcoin holders realized about 25,700 BTC in profit, meaning they actually sold at a gain. That was the largest single day of profit-taking in 2026.
One day doesn't make a trend. But it shows the selling pressure CryptoQuant is warning about isn't hypothetical; it's already showing up on-chain.
For prices to keep rising, new buyers need to absorb the coins that profit-takers are selling. CryptoQuant says that's where things look softer:
When sellers are getting more eager just as buyers are getting quieter, prices can struggle, even in a bull market.
Because the big-picture signals are still strong. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index combines a range of on-chain and market indicators into a single number, and at 90 out of 100, it says the overall environment remains healthy.
Here's a simple way to see the two views side by side:
| Time frame | What the data says | Mood |
|---|---|---|
| Long term | Bull Score 90/100, trend intact | Bullish |
| Short term | Big paper profits, record profit-taking, cooling demand | Cautious |
| Key level | $80,000 is the first support to watch | Decisive |
Both views can be right at the same time. That's the whole point.
CryptoQuant flagged $80,000 as the first important support, a price where buyers have tended to step in.
Support levels aren't magic lines. But they're where many traders set their plans, which makes them self-fulfilling surprisingly often.
If you're a long-term holder: short-term corrections are part of the ride. The data doesn't suggest the bigger trend has broken. Many long-term investors see pullbacks as chances to buy gradually, not reasons to panic.
If you're a short-term trader: this is a time to be careful. Big paper profits across the market mean selling can come quickly. Consider tighter risk management, smaller positions, and extra caution with leverage.
If you're thinking of buying: chasing the price after a strong run is one of the riskiest things you can do. Spreading purchases over time, known as dollar-cost averaging, reduces the risk of buying right before a dip.
On-chain data is powerful because it shows what investors are actually doing, not just what they're saying. But it describes probabilities, not certainties. Bull markets can stay "overheated" longer than anyone expects, and corrections can arrive without warning.
The value of CryptoQuant's analysis isn't that it predicts the future. It's that it tells you where the risks are building.
Bitcoin can be in a bull market and still be due for a correction. Right now, the long-term picture looks strong, while short-term traders are sitting on large, tempting profits and fresh demand is cooling. That's a classic setup for a pause, or a pullback, before the next leg.
Watch $80,000, respect the risks, and remember: in crypto, the staircase has landings.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Sources: CryptoQuant and The Block, September 29, 2026.