ONDO's Big Unlock on Jan. 18, 2027: Can Demand Absorb the Supply?

Oct. 19 (CandyPulse) — Ondo (ONDO) has a date circled on the calendar. On Jan. 18, 2027, the next big batch of locked ONDO tokens is scheduled to be released. It lands at a tough moment: the token trades near $0.44, about 80% below its $2.14 all-time high. Holders want to know whether the unlock will push the price even lower, or whether most of the bad news is already priced in.

What exactly is unlocking?

Ondo launched its token with a 10 billion maximum supply and a multi-year vesting plan. A large share was locked for ecosystem growth, protocol development, the team and early private-sale backers. Since then, a big tranche has been released once a year in January, around the token's anniversary.

The trackers don't agree on the exact figure for 2027. Tokenomist and CoinMarketCal list about 1.94 billion ONDO, while Tokenomics.com and CoinMarketCap-linked data show about 1.71 billion. Tokenomist says the tranche goes to ecosystem growth. Other trackers say it is split between the ecosystem, the team and private investors. Until Ondo confirms the numbers, the safest reading is a range, not a single number.

Why the market is nervous

The numbers are big. Adding a third or more to the circulating supply in a single day is one of the largest unlocks of any top RWA token. ONDO's market value is around $2.1 billion, so the newly released tokens would be worth more than a third of it at current prices.

History adds to the worry. The January 2026 unlock was about the same size, and ONDO reportedly fell around 10% in the days after it. The token kept sliding for months afterwards as the wider altcoin market weakened. In the past week alone, ONDO is down roughly 10% to 16%, depending on the exchange.

Traders also tend to move before an unlock, not after it. When a date is this well known, some holders sell or hedge weeks in advance. That is one reason prices often look weak heading into a big release.

Unlocking is not the same as selling

This is the part many headlines skip. An unlock means tokens become transferable. It does not mean they hit the market.

• Ecosystem tokens are usually spent slowly on grants, incentives and partnerships, not dumped all at once
• Team and early investor tokens are the bigger risk. Watch for large wallet transfers to exchanges in the days around the unlock
• Market makers and OTC desks often place large blocks off-exchange, which softens the hit on public order books
• Expectations matter: if the market has already priced in the worst, an unlock can turn into a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event

So the real question is not how many tokens unlock, but how many actually get sold, and how fast.

The bull case: the business keeps growing

While the token price has fallen, the business behind it has been growing steadily.

The IMF's October Global Financial Stability Report named Ondo among the leading tokenization platforms, alongside Securitize, Circle and Tether. Wall Street's push into tokenization is also accelerating, as we covered in how Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley are leaning into tokenization and BNY and Citadel Securities' tokenized Treasury collateral move.

There is a catch, though. TVL measures how much people use Ondo's products. It does not flow directly into the ONDO token. Ondo's share of the tokenized stock market has also slipped to around 26%, from about 56% in early January, as rivals pile in. More competition means Ondo has to keep shipping to stay ahead.

Bear case vs. bull case

What could the price do?

Nobody can say for sure, and anyone who gives you an exact target is guessing. Here is what to watch instead:

1. Exchange inflows: big transfers from vesting wallets to exchanges in the days around Jan. 18 are the clearest sign of selling
2. Official confirmation: a statement from Ondo on the exact amount and who receives it would settle the 1.71B vs. 1.94B question
3. Derivatives: rising short positions and negative funding rates would show traders betting on a drop
4. Fundamentals: whether TVL and tokenized stock volumes keep growing into the new year
5. The wider market: Bitcoin's direction usually matters more for altcoins than any single unlock

What's next

The unlock is still about three months away, so expect more volatility and plenty of speculation before then. If Ondo's product growth holds up and most of the new tokens stay with the ecosystem rather than going to sellers, the event could pass with less damage than the headline numbers suggest. If big holders head for the exits, the price could stay under pressure well into 2027.

New to this sector? Start with RWA, DeFi and prediction markets in plain English, and see why the IMF warns that tokenized stocks can be volatile.

The CANDY ecosystem is also building in real-world assets. Read about CANDY RWA rewards and tokenized real estate, and follow the CANDY presale at cryptocandy.io. For more market coverage, visit CandyPulse News.

Disclaimer: This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Token unlock figures are estimates from third-party trackers and may change. Crypto assets are volatile and can lose value. Always do your own research before making any investment decision.