WASHINGTON, Oct. 1 (CandyPulse) — The rules that will shape America's fast-growing prediction markets are one step closer. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sent two rulemakings on event contracts to the White House for review, Bloomberg and The Block reported, as a battle with U.S. states over who gets to regulate the industry rumbles on.
Key takeaways
According to federal records, the White House's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) received both rulemakings on September 28:
| Rule | Type | What it does |
|---|---|---|
| Further Definition of "Swap" to Include Event Contracts | Proposed rule | Brings event contracts under the definition of swaps |
| Further Definition of "Swap" to Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products | Interim final rule | Carves out products that look like casino gambling |
The difference in type matters. A proposed rule usually goes through a public comment period before it's finalised. An interim final rule can often take effect faster, sometimes before comments close.
If event contracts, the yes-or-no bets at the heart of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, are formally treated as swaps, they fall squarely under the CFTC's federal oversight. That would strengthen the argument that states can't regulate them as gambling.
The second rule draws a line: products that look like casino-style gambling would be excluded, keeping the CFTC's focus on contracts tied to real-world events.
Several U.S. states argue that prediction markets are simply gambling and should be regulated under state gaming laws. Platforms argue they're federally regulated financial products. The dispute has played out in courts across the country, and these rules are the CFTC's attempt to settle the question in its favour.
The White House review comes as President Trump has thrown his support behind the CFTC's authority over the industry.
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity, with platforms reporting record volumes. Clear federal rules could unlock even more growth, and more scrutiny. Lawmakers are already probing insider trading on the platforms, and Kalshi is ending a volume rewards program amid wash-trading allegations it denies.
It also matters for new on-chain players such as CandyBet, launching soon on CandyChain, as the global rules for prediction markets take shape.
Once OIRA finishes its review, the CFTC can publish the rules. Watch for the comment period on the proposed rule, and for how states respond, including in court.
This article is for information only and is not legal or financial advice.
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