Prediction Markets Face New Rules as CFTC Plans Reach White House Review

By Kevin · 2026-10-01 · News

WASHINGTON, Oct. 1 (CandyPulse) — The rules that will shape America's fast-growing prediction markets are one step closer. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sent two rulemakings on event contracts to the White House for review, Bloomberg and The Block reported, as a battle with U.S. states over who gets to regulate the industry rumbles on.

Key takeaways

The CFTC sent two rules to the White House's OIRA on September 28
One would treat event contracts as swaps, the other would exclude casino-style gambling products
The federal-state dispute over prediction markets is still unresolved
President Trump has backed the CFTC's authority over the sector

The two rules

According to federal records, the White House's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) received both rulemakings on September 28:

Rule	Type	What it does
Further Definition of "Swap" to Include Event Contracts	Proposed rule	Brings event contracts under the definition of swaps
Further Definition of "Swap" to Exclude Casino-Style Gambling Products	Interim final rule	Carves out products that look like casino gambling

The difference in type matters. A proposed rule usually goes through a public comment period before it's finalised. An interim final rule can often take effect faster, sometimes before comments close.

Why the "swap" label matters

If event contracts, the yes-or-no bets at the heart of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, are formally treated as swaps, they fall squarely under the CFTC's federal oversight. That would strengthen the argument that states can't regulate them as gambling.

The second rule draws a line: products that look like casino-style gambling would be excluded, keeping the CFTC's focus on contracts tied to real-world events.

The fight with the states

Several U.S. states argue that prediction markets are simply gambling and should be regulated under state gaming laws. Platforms argue they're federally regulated financial products. The dispute has played out in courts across the country, and these rules are the CFTC's attempt to settle the question in its favour.

The White House review comes as President Trump has thrown his support behind the CFTC's authority over the industry.

Why it matters

Prediction markets have exploded in popularity, with platforms reporting record volumes. Clear federal rules could unlock even more growth, and more scrutiny. Lawmakers are already probing insider trading on the platforms, and Kalshi is ending a volume rewards program amid wash-trading allegations it denies.

It also matters for new on-chain players such as CandyBet, launching soon on CandyChain, as the global rules for prediction markets take shape.

What's next

Once OIRA finishes its review, the CFTC can publish the rules. Watch for the comment period on the proposed rule, and for how states respond, including in court.

This article is for information only and is not legal or financial advice.