The Trump administration’s Department of Energy (DOE) on Monday released a report that found currently scheduled retirements of energy-generating facilities coupled with delays in bringing new power sources online could lead to a rise in blackouts by the end of this decade.
DOE’s report found that with about 104 gigawatts of energy-generating capacity scheduled to be retired by 2030, power outages could see a significant rise if that capacity isn’t replaced in a timely manner. It is estimated that annual outage hours could rise from single digits today to over 800 hours per year.
The agency noted that while 104 GW of power generation is scheduled to be retired, it is scheduled to be replaced by 209 GW of new capacity by 2030 — though only 22 GW of that comes from firm baseload generation sources. It added that even with the assumption of no retirements, the risk of outages in some areas rises more than 3-fold.
“This report affirms what we already know: The United States cannot afford to continue down the unstable and dangerous path of energy subtraction previous leaders pursued, forcing the closure of baseload power sources like coal and natural gas,” Secretary Scott Wright said in a statement.
The report said electricity demand is rising in part due to the construction of energy-intensive artificial intelligence (AI) data centers along with advanced manufacturing facilities.
“In the coming years, America’s reindustrialization and the AI race will require a significantly larger supply of around-the-clock, reliable, and uninterrupted power,” Wright said.
“President Trump’s administration is committed to advancing a strategy of energy addition, and supporting all forms of energy that are affordable, reliable, and secure,” he added. “If we are going to keep the lights on, win the AI race, and keep electricity prices from skyrocketing, the United States must unleash American energy.”
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The DOE said that its past peak-hour tests to evaluate the adequacy of energy resources “do not sufficiently account for growing dependence on neighboring grids.”
It added that “modern methods of evaluating resource adequacy need to incorporate frequency, magnitude, and duration of power outages, move beyond exclusively analyzing peak load time periods, and develop integrated models to enable proper analysis of increasing reliance on neighboring grids.”
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DOE’s report was produced in response to President Donald Trump’s executive order on “Strengthening the Reliability and Security of the United States Electric Grid” and provides a methodology for identifying at-risk regions as well as guiding reliability interventions by the federal government.
