JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a new warning about the U.S. economy, saying that conditions could deteriorate soon and undermine a potential soft landing.
“I think there’s a chance real numbers will deteriorate soon,” Dimon said Tuesday at a Morgan Stanley conference.
Dimon pushed back on suggestions that economic surveys showing diminished business and consumer confidence are an indicator of what’s to come. He explained that “neither consumers nor businesses ever pick the inflection points,” and added that the economy’s “soft landing” will probably look weaker as conditions deteriorate.
“Employment will come down a little bit. Inflation will go up a little bit. Hopefully, it’s just a little bit,” Dimon said, adding that reduced immigration could weaken the economy through its impact on the labor market.
JAMIE DIMON SAYS HE’S NOT AFRAID OF CHINA, BUT WORRIES ABOUT AMERICA’S OWN CHALLENGES
Dimon also raised concerns regarding private credit markets if a recession materializes, saying that banks face different risks in that sector than investors and the current conditions in the sector have made private credit less attractive.
“Do I think that now is a good time to buy credit if I was a fund manager? No,” Dimon said. “I wouldn’t be buying credit today at these prices and these spreads.”
Dimon has issued repeated warnings about the U.S. economy in recent months.
In early April, he said in an appearance on FOX Business’ “Mornings with Maria” that his personal view was that a recession is a “likely outcome” for the economy.
Last month, Dimon said in a Bloomberg Television interview that a recession remained a possibility after the White House delayed and pared back some of its tariff plans to accommodate negotiations.
“Hopefully we’ll avoid it, but I wouldn’t take it off the table at this point,” Dimon said. “If there is a recession, I don’t know how big it would be or how long it would last.”
JPMORGAN LOWERS RECESSION PROBABILITY AFTER TRUMP’S TARIFF TRUCE WITH CHINA
Dimon said that the uncertainty created by President Donald Trump’s tariffs has caused some of the firm’s clients to hold off on investments amid the shifts in policy, which have featured delays in the implementation of tariffs as well as changes in tariff levels as the administration negotiates with U.S. trading partners.
“I think it’s the right thing to do – is to back off of some of that stuff,” Dimon said of the tariff pause for negotiations, adding that the two sides should “have an engaging conversation.”
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Economists at JPMorgan lowered the probability of a recession this year from 60% to below 50% following the Trump administration’s move to pare back some of the tariffs on China, which were set to be as high as 145% during a temporary 90-day pause.
